I don’t remember how I came across this book but it was a welcome respite from some of the heavier ones that I’ve been reading lately. The main point I took away from this novel was that people are crummy at trying to be “random.” Specifically author Poundstone points out in his prologue that
All of this book’s applications are founded on one simple idea. When people make arbitrary, random, or strategic choices, they fall into unconscious patterns that you can predict.
While entertaining to read, I’d say most of his writing is only useful for specific circumstances like taking multiple choice tests, office pools, rock, scissors, paper (RSP), catching fraud, and buying a home. For those circumstances it’s worthwhile to keep a copy of this book around.
See our 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015 and 2014 Reading Lists.
Key Takeaways:
- For a one-shot RSP match, always choose paper. Tell the other player what you are going to throw and do it. Statistically, most people won’t believe you are telling the truth.
- For Multiple Choices Tests where you don’t know the answer:
- “True” answers are most common
- Four answers: “B” is most often correct; Five answers: E is most often correct
- “None of the above” and “All of the above” are most often correct
- It’s not as likely that there will be two D’s (or A’s e.g.) in a row
- On the SAT, eliminate the answer that’s not like the others (i.e., the outliers)
- When in doubt, guess the one that sounds familiar
- When to buy a home--he’s got a nifty little formula that can be used to determine if the market is favorable for a home purchase
- For presentations: the last slide or last point is what gets remembered. Make sure you leave a lasting impression
No comments:
Post a Comment